Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-2-3
overall winrate
68.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.9%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1429
· median 1429
· range 1396–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
985
Q1 1216
Q3 1407
1610
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.6% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
